Week 4 is finally here, and, although the season is off to a mediocre start for Virginia Tech fans, one thing that they have all been waiting for is this matchup against West Virginia on Thursday night. Lane Stadium, under the lights, Enter Sandman blasting, fans losing their minds, a half orange and half maroon color effect in the stands…yeah, Lane is going to be a spectacle. It’s the first matchup between the two schools in Blacksburg since 2004 and only the third match-up since then; one game at FedEx Field in 2017 and last year’s match-up in Morgantown that saw the Black Diamond Trophy end up in the Mountaineer’s possession.
Any long-time Virginia Tech Hokies football fan will tell you that this game just hits different. It’s on the level of a Miami or Virginia, and now that the rivalry has been renewed, even for a short time, those feelings have come rushing back and they haven’t missed a beat.
A Look at the Mountaineers
As we sit here prior to the week 4 kick-off, the West Virginia Mountaineers are currently 1-2. That includes a 65-7 win over FCS Towson and close losses to Pitt Kansas, which happened to be an overtime loss. What is interesting about each of those losses is that an interception either ended the game or directly led to them losing in key moments in the 4th quarter or overtime.
That being said, this offense can move the football. The Mountaineers offense is led by their new offensive coordinator, Graham Harrell, who spent some time in the NFL – most notably on the Green Bay Packers for three years where he became a super bowl champion backing up the greatest quarterback of all-time, Aaron Rodgers – but you most likely remember him for his prolific career at Texas Tech where he set and still holds 8 individual NCAA records. Harrell has been coaching dating back to 2009 and previously served as the offensive coordinator and quarterbacks coach at USC before making the jump to West Virginia.
Joining Harrell as a new member of this offense is JT Daniels at quarterback, fresh off his national championship at Georgia who is on his third school in his collegiate career. And the two have gotten off to a fast start statistically.
The Mountaineers currently rank 14th in yards per game with almost 510 yards, 11th in points per game (46), and own a top 30 passing and rushing offense by averaging nearly 300 yards through the air and over 200 yards on the ground. Maybe most importantly, West Virginia has converted 54% of their third downs. Have they played elite defenses? Not yet, but these numbers are still impressive.
Virginia Tech’s Defense Has Looked Vintage
As good as the West Virginia offense has been, you could argue Virginia Tech’s defense has been better. The Hokies currently rank 3rd nationally on third down conversion percentage with a rate of 17%. However, this match-up against West Virginia will be by far the toughest test for the Hokies defense this year.
In week 1, the Hokies took on Old Dominion (ODU) and the Monarchs are no stalwart offensively and took advantage of a terrible snap to basically flip the game 10 points in their favor. The Monarchs only scored one offensive TD. Fast forward a week, and the Hokies allowed only one offensive TD against Boston College, but the Eagles may have one of the worst offensive lines in the ACC, if not the country.
Week 3, they played Wofford who hadn’t scored a point all season, and although they got their first touchdown against the Hokies, it wasn’t until several reserves entered the game.
West Virginia returns most of their offensive line and they have play makers at every position on offense, including some pretty good depth. After the final second ticks off the clock on Thursday night, everyone will have a good idea if the Hokies defense is a contender, pretender or somewhere in between.
Hokies’ Offensive Personnel
It sounds like Kaleb Smith should be a go and the Hokies are going to need him in this game. He’s by far their best and most experienced receiver and they will likely have to score multiple touchdowns to come out on top.
Malachi Thomas has gone from week-to-week to a game-time decision. Hokies Head Coach Brent Pry mentioned it will be a stretch for him to play but being a game-time decision sounds a whole lot better than week-to-week, so it sounds like Thomas is getting closer.
Thomas had a promising freshman year, and there is a lot of hope across Hokie Nation that he can mirror that same level of play in 2022. The biggest difference is you have re-vamped version of Keshawn King. Is it possible the Hokies may get that thunder and lightning tandem in Blacksburg for the first time since the David Wilson-Ryan Williams era?
On that note, King will be back, and the only reason he didn’t play against Wofford was for precautionary reasons. Also of note, Cole Beck is on the depth chart for the first time as a kick-returner, so we’ll be on watch to see if he gets in the game elsewhere on offense as well.
Keys to the Game
Protect the football: Simply put, the Hokies must protect the football and it’s something quarterback Grant Wells has done well the last two games. He will need to do so again in week 4 for the Hokies to win on Thursday. Last year, Tech got down 14-0 early and then almost came back to win and looked like the better team in the last 18 or so minutes of the game. However, there are more than 18 minutes in a football game the last time I checked. Both teams look very different than last year’s teams, especially at quarterback, coaching staff, etc. And one thing working in Tyler Bowen’s favor is that his offense doesn’t need to perfect, but it must protect the ball. It does not appear that Virginia Tech has the fire power to get into an offensive shootout (at least we’d assume since they haven’t scored 30 points yet this year).
Consistent Rushing Attack: The Hokies haven’t been great on the ground outside of KeShawn King, but King has only four carries since the ODU game. Outside of the long touchdown run King ripped off against the Eagles, the Virginia Tech rushing game has been below average at best. You’ve got a bunch of new guys on the offensive line trying to figure things out, but it’s week 4. You’ve either figured it out by now or you are what you are. If the running game can get going, there’s a chance this offense will look significantly better.
Compete in the trenches: The offensive line is going to have to play more consistently to help stabilize this offense. The West Virginia defensive line will be a great test for this unit and the Hokies’ offensive line doesn’t have to be dominate here. They can even be outplayed, but they can’t get dominated. The defensive line is the strength of this Mountaineer defense. Dante Stills is the X-Factor – likely a first- or second-day pick in the NFL Draft. However, this WVU line can be had. Go watch clips from the Kansas game and you’ll see that in action.
Dominate Defense: Listen, even if the Hokies allow a big play or two, or multiple offensive TDs for the first time this season, that’s ok. What they need out of the defense is consistency and to slow this offense down.
If you take out the Towson game, West Virginia gave up over 400 yards per game to both Pitt and Kansas. Those two teams also combined for 93 total points against the defense and somehow WVU still ranks as the number 41 overall defense in the country. That’s an early season statistic that doesn’t add up. This defense is not that good.
The Hokies play good team defense. They use a lot of different guys, create a lot of different looks, do a good job of pressuring the QB, but I think we’re going to see a blitz heavy attack to start and adjust from there. If the WVU line holds and gives Daniels time it could be a long night for the Hokies.
Prediction
The line opened at -2.5 in West Virginia’s favor and has since ticked down to -1.5 with the over/under sitting at 50.5, which feels right, and I would say leans in the Hokies favor. Overall, this game is a toss-up and it’s going to come down to two things: which unit is more elite – the Hokies defense or the Mountaineer offense, and offensive consistency for the Hokies. If VT can figure out how to move the ball more consistently, sustain drives, and keep the defense off the field for long periods of time they should be able to find a way to win.
It doesn’t have to be pretty but build off the Wofford game. We saw guys like Christian Moss and Jaden Blue emerge. This week, the Hokies get Keshawn King back. Nick Gallo has become a bit of a security blanket for this offense at tight end, and you mix in a game breaker like Conor Blumrick and the Hokies have the pieces to make noise.
One thing not to overlook as well, West Virginia has been bad at closing out games. If the game has been close, they’ve made mistakes (primarily at the QB position) and they’ve lost. Don’t lose sight of that, especially if the game is close the stretch.
I think this game is tight, it could very well come down to the last possession, but there’s no way I’m picking West Virginia to come into Lane Stadium and leave with a win. It’s a new era in Hokie’s football. The Boston College win was the first step in righting the ship at home, and a win against West Virginia would be a giant leap towards righting the ship protecting your home turf with your long-lost rival coming into town.
Virginia Tech 27, Mountaineers 24
