Clemson once again is headed to Charlotte for the ACC Championship game this weekend, and they’re looking at their 4th straight ACC Championship if they can take care of business against Pitt. If Clemson wins, this will be the fourth consecutive year that they make it into the College Football Playoff, which has only been in existence for five years.
The Tigers are a huge favorite. At last check, the line was at -27.5 in favor of Clemson, which is to be expected. So can Pitt win this game? Sure. Technically, anyone has a legitimate shot at winning a football game these days, but it’s not going to happen.
This is Pitt’s first ACC Championship game appearance since joining the conference in 2013. Now, the only Coastal Division school that hasn’t made the ACC Championship game is Virginia. The Atlantic Division has absolutely dominated the ACC Championship over the last 7 years. Clemson has won the last three seasons, with Florida State winning from 2012-2014. Clemson’s first ACC title came in 2011 with a 38-10 victory over Virginia Tech. The last Coastal Division team to win the ACC Championship was Virginia Tech in 2010 with a 44-33 win over Florida State.
Saturday will mark only the second time that two teams meeting in this championship game aren’t ranked. The last time that happened was 2012 when 13th ranked Florida State beat Georgia Tech 21-15.
I don’t think it’s any surprise to anyone that these teams have different levels of talent. Clemson has transformed into a national brand, has dominated recruiting over the last 5 years, and is now the premier program in the ACC. That being said, Pitt has shown plenty of fight this year against, what most would consider superior teams, but they’ve also had some head-scratchers.
Pitt happens to be UNC’s only conference win this year in a 3-point loss. They lost by 45 points to Penn State in week two, and in late September 13th ranked UCF beat the Panthers by 31. However, they did beat a very good Syracuse team, led Notre Dame late in the fourth quarter before losing by 5, and then took care of business in conference play until a 24-3 loss last week at Miami. I’m willing to look past the poor showings in September and focus on what we’ve seen lately.
Pitt’s strength is the running game. Qadree Ollison had a phenomenal senior campaign with 1,134 yards and 10 rushing touchdowns, and he shared the backfield with Darrin Hall who is approaching a 1,000 yard season, with 935 yards entering Saturday. As normal, Pitt has continued its “Running Back U” theme in 2018, and Pitt will live and die with the run game against Clemson.
However, that’s the issue. Clemson has arguably the best defensive line in the country led by Clelin Ferrell and Christian Wilkins. Every starter on their line is headed to the NFL and asking the Pitt offensive line to create running lanes consistently for both of these backs is a tough ask. In order for Pitt to put up points offensively, sophomore quarterback Kenny Pickett is going to need to have the game of his life. Pickett owns a 63% completion percentage and has 12 touchdowns and 5 interceptions on the season. He’s a game manager at this point in his career, but he’s going to need to make the leap from Alex Smith to Aaron Rodgers in order for Pitt to move the ball consistently.
On the other side of the ball, ACC Offensive Rookie of the Year Trevor Lawrence and ACC Player of the Year Travis Etienne figure to give the Pitt defense all they can handle. Lawrence has close to 2,500 yards through the air this year with 22 touchdowns and only 4 picks. Oh, and he’s handing it to one of the best backs in the country in Etienne who leads the conference in rushing with 1,307 yards and 19 touchdowns on the ground.
Clemson is averaging 539 yards on offense – split almost evenly between passing and rushing. Pitt is giving up 400 yards a game and allowing a whopping 174 yards per game on the ground. I expect Clemson to be able to move this ball at will on offense.
The most interesting part about this game to me is how many points is Clemson going to score. The over/under is currently at 52.5 points. Clemson has put up at least 40-points seven times this year, at least 50-points 4 times, at least 60-points twice, and even put up 77-points against the second worst team in the ACC this season – Louisville. Basically, what this means is I’m taking the over. I like Clemson to win big over Pitt: 56-10
With the win Clemson will likely land the two-seed in the College Football Playoff (assuming Alabama wins), and a likely match-up against Notre Dame in the national semi-final.
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