- Where: Cotton Bowl – Arlington, TX
- Date: December 29, 2018
- Time: 4:00 PM EST
- Channel: ESPN
Finally, the College Football Playoff semi-final is upon us, and Clemson and Notre Dame kicks off the action first. Clemson is currently a 13-point favorite against Notre Dame, but I expect this game to be much closer than that when the clock hits zero at the end of the game.
Quick Look: Notre Dame
The Fighting Irish continue to be overlooked, just like they have been all season. This program doesn’t exactly fly under the radar. They’re one of the highest, if not highest profile programs in college football. That being said, you’ve heard very little about their chances in this game, or their ability to actually win it.
Notre Dame is one of six teams in the country that ranks in the top 30 nationally in both total offense and total defense. They’re racking up 456 yards per game and giving up 331 yards per game.
X-Factor: Ian Book
This team really turned the corner when Ian Book was named starter over Brandon Wimbush after the Vanderbilt game. This offense went from bad to good pretty much immediately once Book came in. Book will be the most accurate passer Clemson has faced this year. He has completed 70% of his passes, and does a decent job of taking care of the football. He’s thrown 19 touchdowns and 6 interceptions on the season.
Notre Dame also has a stud running back in Dexter Williams who should go over 1,000 yards in this game after being suspended for the first four games of the season.
What Notre Dame needs to do to Win
The Fighting Irish will have to control the clock and keep the Clemson offense off the field. They’re allowing 198 yards per game through the air, and they’ve got some playmakers on defense that could cause Trevor Lawrence some problems. Cornerback Julian Love is one of the leaders on the defense, tallying 61 tackles, an interception, and three fumble recoveries. He leads a secondary that has only allowed passing touchdowns through the air.
Offensively, Book will need to protect the football and convert on third down. Book has done a fantastic job all year of extending drives on third down.
Quick Look: Clemson
Everywhere Notre Dame has strength, Clemson may have a greater strength. The Tigers have elite talent on both sides of the ball. There’s no doubt that a lot of these guys are going to be playing on Sunday’s very soon, and for this group of seniors, this is their 11th postseason game, which is second most all-time (Alabama’s current group of seniors is first all-time with 12 postseason appearances).
Clemson also ranks in the top 5 of scoring offense (45.4 ppg) and in scoring defense (14.7 ppg). Clemson does have three players suspended for this game, including star defensive tackle Dexter Lawrence. Albert Huggins will be taking over for Lawrence, who is also an NFL-calbier player. When Lawrence is in the game, the defense allows 1.7 yards per rush, but when he’s off the field they’re allowing 3 yards per rush.
X-Factor – Trevor Lawrence
The freshman has had a great season so far, having beat out Kelly Bryant for the starting job early in the year. He’s extremely efficient for a freshman having completed 65% of his passes. He can also make plays with his legs if he has to, but prefers to stay in the pocket. He did not have a great showing in the ACC Championship, but he didn’t make any mistakes, which will be one of the major keys for him in this game.
Offensive Attack
Travis Etienne, who has almost 1,500 yards on the ground to go along with 21 touchdowns, leads the running back corps. Etienne is a game changer who can alter the course of any game. If he’s able to find success early, it will make Lawrence’s day a lot easier.
Tee Higgins and Justyn Ross are the top two receiving targets, who also have big play ability and have combined for 16 touchdowns.
Defensive Attack
Even with the absence of Lawrence on the defensive line, this unit is still the best in college football. Led by Christian Wilkins and Clelin Ferrell, there are 6 defensive players with 3 sacks or more. The defense is only allowing 92 yards on the ground and 183 yards through the air, so if this group can take away the run from Notre Dame it’s going to make things much tougher on Book.
Prediction
I think this game is going to be very close, but if the game is close in the fourth quarter here’s something to watch. Lawrence is only completing 54.8% of his passes with three touchdowns and two interceptions in the final period. Meanwhile, Book is completing 83.3% of his passes with seven touchdowns and two interceptions in the fourth. If it comes down to quarterback play at the end of the game, it appears Notre Dame has the advantage.
I do think Book has the better day between the two quarterbacks, and Notre Dame’s best chance at winning is to dominate the clock. Their chance of doing that has gone up with Lawrence being suspended. That being said, I think Clemson has too many weapons for Notre Dame to handle, and the Tigers find a way to win a very close game.
Clemson 30, Notre Dame 24
